Those who have handled sciences have been either men of experiment or men of dogmas. The men of experiment are like the ant, they only collect and use; the reasoners resemble spiders, who make cobwebs out of their own substance. But the bee takes the middle coursed: it gathers its material from the flowers of the field, but transformss and digests it by a power of its own.
Francis Bacon, The New Organon, 1920.
Optimal use of geological experience can be achieved through databases, theory and statistical methods of analysis.
Mathematical statistics offers a wide range of techniques that can be applied to prospect appraisal and resource assessment. A basic knowledge of probability and statistics is essential to understanding of appraisal techniques. Fortunately there are a number of excellent textbooks on the subject, directed to geological analysis, or particularly to the prospect/resource estimation process. In this page, and related pages, we discuss some of the basics and give references to the relevant literature.
Here is a list of some of the books and proceedings of conferences that have a bearing on statistics used for prospect appraisal and resource assessment:
"Methods and Models for Assessing Energy Resources" (1975) by ed. First IIASA conference on Energy Resources, May 1975) by ed. Grenon, M., 626 p. Proceedings v. 5.
"An introduction to Exploration Risk Analysis" (1977, 1984),by R.E.Megill, 1st and 2nd ed., Pennwell Publ. Co., Tulsa, Oklahoma, 273 p.
"Oil and Gas Forecasting" (1990) by Lawrence J. Drew. 252 p., Oxford University Press.
"Techniques for Determining Probabilities of Geological Events and Processes"by Hunter, R.G. and C.J.Mann, (1992), 364 p., Oxford University Press.
"The Business of Petroleum Exploration" (1992) by ed. Steinmetz, R. 382 p., AAPG Treatise of Petroleum Geology, Handbook of Petroleum Geology.
"Computing Risk for Oil Prospects: Principles and Programs" (1995) by Harbough, J.W., J.C.Davis & J.Wendebourg. 451 p., Pergamon or Elsevier.
"Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures" (2001) by Rose, P., 164 p., AAPG Methods in Exploration Series, No 12.
"Quantification and Prediction of Hydrocarbon Resources" (1993) by ed. Doré, A.G..352 p., Proceedings of the Norwegian Petroleum Society Conference, December 1993, Stavanger, Norway, published in 1996.
"Risk & Uncertainty in E&P" (2008), in a special BAAPG issue, V. 92, No.10, p.1251 - 1456.
"Fundamentals of Basin and Petroleum Systems Modeling" by Hantschel,T and A.J.Kauerauf (2009) . Springer Verlag, 476.p.